eToro Update - Week 47 2018
Stats given cover closed trades for the 19th November - 25th November
My total realized loss from the past week is -7.18% Overall the portfolio is down 12.47% from last week
Profitable trades closed: 11
Unprofitable trades closed: 16
Most traded instrument: $BTC (8 Trades)
Another horrible week for crypto. In fact, this was the 2nd largest drop for a weekly candle since mid 2012 for Bitcoin. One of the worst weeks for crypto in it’s 10 year history for price performance. For me the interesting thing to do here is actually to invert everything. On an inverted chart. Doing this can remove some typical bias, but gives a much clearer view of the bearish perspective. The similarity I see most strikingly is how unsustainable the last candle appears. It skipped through a support level entirely. On the hourly candles we can actually see a double top (inverted still) forming as well. I’m not entirely convinced that this is where things turn around, but at this stage, understanding how quickly the market can turn with a short squeeze we must ask ourselves ahow much are we willing to risk not getting back into a long position? For me, 3.6k is a price at which I believe is a good area to be rebuilding long positions. A move down to around 3k is still likely, but could be short lived.
Thanksgiving & Black Friday rolled around again this week. eToro prompted a cool post for people to give thanks, with many different PI’s and community members receiving some appreciation. Black Friday is where my focus was, and like the previous year it felt weak. Perhaps it’s just the UK, but sentiment towards spending appears to be shifting. Nobody I know was excited by any sales, nobody was tweeting about a discounted purchase. It’s the lowest activity I’ve seen for some time. My gut tells me that the BF sales, which is by far the most important day for any major retailer or etailer will be low across the board come Q4 earnings. The public are still struggling economically, and appear to be tightening their belts rather than loosening them
Bakkt, the futures market by ICE has been delayed until Q1 2019. The new market has been hyped up by the crypto communities for a few months now, but was postponed due to the “volume of interest”. The CEO explained that they were keen to get all of the “pieces in place” to ensure a smooth launch that enables partners to trade from day 1. January 24th is the new target launch date.
8 trades, ranging from a loss of -15.84% to a profit of 5.83% showing an average of -2.67%, not ideal. I’m excited by the movement I’ve seen here recently though, and hope to post a few more gains this week
1 short for a loss of -6.86%, avoided a much larger loss here after the trade went the other way. These pairs are not something I expect to trade often, but can provide good volatility when cryptos are trading flat against the dollar
3 longs closed for -77.27%, -86.64% & -89.43%, followed by two shorts for 1.89% & 0.66% profit. I think it’s pretty obvious what I was going for here. Removing exposure before the fall down to the low triple digits and a few day-trades to follow. My opinion of Ethereum continues to deteriorate as $EOS continues to improve and grow. Many of my friends and other traders within the community seem to broadly agree, but it’s important not to entirely write Ethereum off as a lost cause, there are some brilliant projects built on ETH that work already and could offer support to the price
2 long term positions finally closed out for -66.63% & -68.59%, similar to ETH, I’m disappointed by how slow the progress has been with Cardano and decided to remove all exposure in favour of larger positions in the cryptos I truly believe in
2 longs for 0.29% & 0.71%, almost not worth mentioning, but profit is profit
1 loss at -55.33%, the first of a few trades that got caught out by their SL on market open prior to Thanksgiving. These trades really frustrated me, I had not checked pre-market prices and many of these trades were a safe distance ahead of their SL’s
1 loss at -60.75%, the same as above, I re-opened this position shortly afterwards, though the price had already recovered a substantial amount
2 losses at -56.17% & -55.75%, again two 2x leverage positions caught out by the extreme pre-market move on the 19th and then again on the 20th
1 loss at -52.70%, as above, although this was a position I wasn’t too keen to replace, as mentioned earlier Black Friday doesn’t feel very hyped up this year and Amazon could easily be one of the biggest losers from this. Remember, Black Friday is they day they sign up the most new users to their Prime subscription
1 short closed for a profit of 1.9%. 3 positions remain open
2 long trades for 2.56% & 3.56% each. Tesla has provided some reasonable trading opportunities recently, although I’m using no leverage for these positions currently
1 loss at -50.2%, the last position to get caught in the big drop on the 20th.
I know it may seem early, but Christmas is now firmly in my sights. For me one of the more interesting indicators I look for in the run-up to Christmas is advertising. Most companies have already unveiled their new products designed to get us spending, but the marketing is equally important and could offer some trading opportunities ahead of end-of-year earnings