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  • Jay Smith

eToro Update - Week 45 2018

Stats given cover closed trades for the 5th November - 11th November

My total realized profit from the past week is 1.08% Overall the portfolio is up 2.42% from last week

Profitable trades closed: 34

Unprofitable trades closed: 2

Most traded instrument: $AMD (15 Trades)

As we move into November things are looking reasonable in terms of trading results. As you can see above the overall portfolio increased by just shy of 2.5%, with 1.08% of profit from closed positions. This week I was extremely active in trading both $ETSY and $AMD with the majority of trades this week coming from day-trading. As promised last week there were no closes above 10% loss, in fact they were both below 5%. The Nasdaq looks fragile right now as it was denied by the 200MA on the daily chart. The theory of a dead-cat bounce appears likely to play out as we move into the week, perhaps testing the 7000 Nasdaq Composite low seen the previous week. Although I have began taking some serious exposure to a few stocks, I believe we are better situated to handle the drop this time around News

AMD’s Next Horizon event was a huge success. The stock was incredibly volatile as the event took place, increasing by almost 15% before falling off sharply aftwards. It took a few days for the investors to fully catch on to the news. Broadly speaking the predictions made by AdoredTV (Youtube channel) were bang on the money, which is why we saw such strong results. He is firmly of the belief that Intel is nowhere now, simply unable to compete with these new cpu’s, even by stitching together two CPU’s as it announced the day before AMD’s event. AMD finally revealed their new chiplet style architecture, pointing out that some parts of the CPU simply can’t be scaled down any further than they are now. This part still runs on a main 14nm chip, which is then flanked by 8 7nm chiplets to handle the heavy work. AMD is even planning to use the same socket for their next gen (after what was just announced), ensuring hardware compatibility in the future. The announced partnership with AWS, Dropbox, Cray and a few others was the icing on the cake of a great day for AMD

This week saw several big earnings reports, the two most notable for us were $ETSY and $ATVI. The first, ETSY was a show-stopper, amazing growth, the move to cloud completed ahead of schedule, and newer services and products were being adopted quickly by customers (with the exception of ETSY Plus which struggled a little). For Activision the decline in users fueled a substantial sell-off as investors continue to fear the “Fortnite effect”. In reality I see a lot of underlying strength in the company and expect a bright future for the company mid-long term. For more thoughts on earnings keep checking my blog on where I will post the second half of my Earnings outlook for Q3

The Bitcoin Cash drama continues to escalate. A couple of people reached out to me on Twitter and eToro thanking me for my previous predictions of this sort of shenanigans. Bitcoin Cash is now at a full blown civil war, between Bitcoin Cash ABC (Roger Ver and co) and Bitcoin Satoshis Vision, headed up by Craig Wright. In a bizzare move CSW effectively declared a hashing war on BCH/ABC this week, cutting ties with Roger Ver and Jihan in no uncertain terms. Roger posted a youtube video exposing the vile email he received from CSW where he said “You Are My enemy. You Have F*cking No Idea What That Means”. Currently the miners who align with Satoshis Vision control over 70% of hashing power by some counts. The fork is due to take place on the 15th and could potentially see one of the currencies crushed by the volume of hashrate going against it. $BCH remains a very risky investment and this is why I decided not to trade around this event Finally, the EOS San Fran hackathon took place over the weekend. This is the 4th EOS hackathon following Hong Kong, Sydney and London. The winners of all 4 events will be flying out to compete in the finals in Cape Town where I assume a much larger prize will be on the line. The challenge for the hackathon was to “align different stakeholders”, in just 26 hours there were proof-of-concept working prototypes made for everything from a decentralized music crowdfunding service with revenue sharing, built entirely on IPFS, through to tokenizing food stamps and decentralised project management tools & marketplaces. Yet more evidence that there is still a lot of great early-stage dapp development taking place on EOS


No crypto trades this week, the high spreads simply do not fit well with day-trading, so I am unlikely to close many trades in crypto until we are firmly back into bull-market territory

Stocks $SNAP

2 shorts of 3.62% & 2.06% profit, in hindsight I could have let these ride a good distance further, but my strong day-trading performance lead me to close to increase available balance for trading


15 trades, 13 profitable ranging from 0.09% to 7.68% and two losses of -3.90% & -4.71%. As explained in the news section about Next Horizon, I am extremely bullish on $AMD yet again, and am confident that next year we will surge through the previous $30 highs and maybe, just maybe AMD could climb to a new all-time high if the market conditions are favourable. As a result I have continued to build more exposure in AMD after the Next Horizon event, and despite some lingering uncertainty in the wider market


2 shorts early in the week for 0.12% and 0.24% profit, and a long at the end of the week for 2.03% profit. The drama around Diablo is ongoing, but I believe the new title could be a really big hit and that the move towards mobile is sensible for the Blizzard titles, providing they continue to maintain their high-quality PC and console content. One of the noteworthy things from their earnings was the success of Overwatch League, which significantly breached expected revenue. In a market that is still growing this is very encouraging


10 trades, all profitable, between 1.02% & 36.45%, $ETSY was one of my big bets back in Q1/Q2 for the remainder of the year. And this earnings did not disappoint, huge growth and great forecasts. As with the previous big bunch of earnings I am writing up my thoughts for a blog post later this week. I also day-traded the volatility quite a bit, some great trading overall that I’m happy with


1 trade for 0.69% profit. I was hoping for a little more, but you have to take what you can get really


2 trades for 1.92% & 1.17% profit, Microsoft has shown some resilience to the recent downtrends, a few nice trades here


2 brief shorts for 0.21% & 0.04% profit, I slightly messed up these trades. I expected a bigger downturn as a result of AMD’s unveiled new server CPU’s, but the stock was relatively muted dropping by around 2% at it’s most. Eventually both trades closed on stop-loss for marginal profit


1 trade for 2.22% profit. Similar to Microsoft Tesla appears to be shrugging off the broader market sentiment

Looking Forward

Straggling earnings calls such as $NVDA and $WIX will round up Q3’s earnings period for us.

Bitcoin Cash’s fork is due to land in approximately 48 hours, I’m preparing popcorn

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