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  • Jay Smith

eToro Update - Week 25 2018


Stats given cover closed trades for the 18th June - 24th June

My total realized profit from the past week is -5.65% Overall the portfolio is down 4.08%

Profitable trades closed: 14

Unprofitable trades closed: 11

Most traded instrument: $DASH (7 trades)

A difficult week, where I’ve taken the decision to re-balance on cryptos again. The two prominent decisions were to close many Dash and Litecoin trades. The sentiment around both projects has changed over the past 6 months. The hype is no longer there, and development seems to have slowed down, especially compared to competitors. EOS had a rollercoaster week with the politics of the governance system already playing out similar to any nation state. Many are keen to point out the mess of current “laws” in the constitution but, as Vitalik said, when a crypto finally cracks a well-balanced governance system it will be revolutionary. So far, despite the chaos, EOS is the closest to achieving it, and the system looks workable, albeit with some amendments required.

Some news highlights for this week:

$TSLA vs a “whistleblower” - Elon vs the world continues as Tesla sued a man for stealing data and breaching internal systems to leak company secrets. The man accused claims to be a whistleblower and speaks of an unorganised and dangerous mess within Tesla, including cars being sent out of the factory with punctures to the batteries. I’m not sure who to believe, but until it comes to a close I remain very cautious on Tesla, with no current open positions.

$SQ receives New York BitLicense - Although down dramatically by some 10% today things are looking positive for Square. In their previous earnings call they reported $34M of BTC sold, and now they join the somewhat exclusive list of companies with a BitLicense, meaning they can sell to those in NY.

Mt. Gox enters Civil Rehabilitation proceedings, ends $BTC sell-offs - The huge selling pressure that hit Bitcoin during late 2017 and continued into 2018 has hit the pause button, at least for the time being. MtGox victims have until October 22nd to file for rehabilitation. If a large number file for Bitcoin refunds as opposed to USD refunds (valued at around $400) then we could in fact see buying pressure come back as MtGox seek to acquire more Bitcoin, although this is just speculation.

Cryptos

$EOS - I have reopened around 80% of my closed EOS trades already at more beneficial prices for us. I also made a blog post on www.jaynemesis.com/blog explaining my thoughts on the rocky launch. I explained the 11 closed trades in comments on last weeks update post.

$BTC - A couple of small daytrades for around +1% each closed.

$LTC - 2 long-term positions closed at -54% and -63% respectively. As mentioned in the intro, I no longer believe $LTC is keeping up with the competition for development and I struggle to believe there is a defensible section of the market for them to inhabit. We only had a very small position in LTC as a hedge against BTC, but I no longer feel like the risk/reward ratio is there for LTC.

$XLM - Small rebalance, 1 large position closed at -50%.

$DASH - Major rebalance, after spending time researching the community it feels to me that Dash has, like LTC, lost some hype and slowed it’s pace. Unlike LTC I still believe Dash has a strong product that is fairly unique and still processes a large number of transactions daily. The DAO fund proposals have been weaker over recent months, and the delay to evolution could hurt the project. Overall, although I still believe Dash will recover back up towards 1500 eventually, I believe it will take longer, and that most other top 10 coins will outperform it in the rally when it comes. 7 trades were closed for between -36% and -79% losses at various price levels. The remaining funds will be allocated to stocks, not crypto as I seek to weight slightly more towards stocks for the remainder of 2018.

Stocks $SNE - I took the opportunity of an inflated market to close out two under-performing Sony trades at 0.2% and 0.8% profit.

$TWTR - One big trade, one small, 1.2% and 34.8% profit. Twitter is still looking strong, but I’m hoping for a drop further before re-entering.

$SPOT - Spotify received another analyst upgrade recently, like NFLX I believe it has a strong future, 1 trade closed at 8.8% profit.

$SNAP - The shorting continues, a well-timed 2x leverage trade earned me 15%, two others were also closed for around 1.5% profit each.

$ATVI - Two trades closed for 8% and 3% respectively.

$NTDOY - I closed a trade right before the price fell 8%, netting a small 1.4% profit.

$SPX500 - Despite the ongoing trade war situation I decided to close this short at a loss of -36%. The trading conditions are difficult, the entire markets are surely following Trump's twitter account closely at this point. It’s hard to predict which way things will go, the market has broadly shrugged off most of the bad news around tariffs so far.

Looking Forward

A few weeks ago I said there was a real chance that cryptos could fall back down to the 5.5k level. We have now done that. I believe this really should act as the bottom of the market, but re-testing it a few more times is both possible and likely. I have good cash reserves (although I’ve been shopping for stocks today) so I’ll look to finish accumulating positions in EOS and Bitcoin this week. Earnings are also approaching, hopefully the solar companies are able to shrug off the China concerns and we can make a good profit from them.


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